One piece of evidence against this: almost all the uptick in the UK is in folks under 40. Under 40s have a much lower vaccination rate due to the age-dependent rollout, but because of the blood clot scare under 40s have preferentially gotten Pfizer. Over 40s meanwhile have a very high vaccination rate but it’s mostly AstraZeneca. Their case rate is flat.
Those lines aren’t flat, they’re just hard to read on that scale. I made my own based on the heatmap of case rates for england (there doesn’t seem to be a whole-UK heatmap).
One piece of evidence against this: almost all the uptick in the UK is in folks under 40. Under 40s have a much lower vaccination rate due to the age-dependent rollout, but because of the blood clot scare under 40s have preferentially gotten Pfizer. Over 40s meanwhile have a very high vaccination rate but it’s mostly AstraZeneca. Their case rate is flat.
Source
Those lines aren’t flat, they’re just hard to read on that scale. I made my own based on the heatmap of case rates for england (there doesn’t seem to be a whole-UK heatmap).