If interstellar panspermia is possible, “abiogenesis is cosmically rare” is not an explanation, and our Galaxy could be populated by aliens of approximately our civilisational age and the same basic genetic code.
Good point. In that case the Drake equation must be modified to include panspermia probabilities and the variance in time-to-civilization among our sister lineages. I’m curious what kind of Bayesian update we get on those...
If interstellar panspermia is possible, “abiogenesis is cosmically rare” is not an explanation, and our Galaxy could be populated by aliens of approximately our civilisational age and the same basic genetic code.
Good point. In that case the Drake equation must be modified to include panspermia probabilities and the variance in time-to-civilization among our sister lineages. I’m curious what kind of Bayesian update we get on those...
In fact, not a mine idea, I read an article about it by Panov—https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/prebiological_panspermia_and_the_hypothesis_of_the_self-consistent_galaxy_origin_of_life/