After all, if there’s a demon who pays a billion dollars to everyone who follows CDT or EDT then FDTists will lose out.
How does demon determine what DT a person follows?
If it’s determined by simulating person’s behavior in Newcomb-like problem, then once FDTist gets to know about that, he should two-box (since billion dollars from demon is more than million dollars from Omega).
If it’s determined by mind introspection, then FDTist will likely self-modify to believe to be CDTist, and checking actual DT becomes a problem like detecting AI deceptive alignment.
How does demon determine what DT a person follows?
If it’s determined by simulating person’s behavior in Newcomb-like problem, then once FDTist gets to know about that, he should two-box (since billion dollars from demon is more than million dollars from Omega).
If it’s determined by mind introspection, then FDTist will likely self-modify to believe to be CDTist, and checking actual DT becomes a problem like detecting AI deceptive alignment.
The Demon is omniscient.
FDTists can’t self-modify to be CDTists, by stipulation. This actually is, I think, pretty plausible—I couldn’t choose to start believing FDT.