I don’t know what to believe yet; I appreciate the evidence you are giving here (in particular your experience as someone who has been around in the community longer than me). My skepticism was about the inference from MIRI did abstract AF research --> MIRI thought deep learning would be much less effective than it in fact was.
I do remember reading some old posts from EY about connectionism that suggest that he at least failed to predict the deep learning boost in advance. That’s different from confidently predicting it wouldn’t happen though.
I too think that Moravec et al deserve praise for successfully predicting the deep learning boom and having accurate AI timelines 40 years in advance.
I don’t know what to believe yet; I appreciate the evidence you are giving here (in particular your experience as someone who has been around in the community longer than me). My skepticism was about the inference from MIRI did abstract AF research --> MIRI thought deep learning would be much less effective than it in fact was.
I do remember reading some old posts from EY about connectionism that suggest that he at least failed to predict the deep learning boost in advance. That’s different from confidently predicting it wouldn’t happen though.
I too think that Moravec et al deserve praise for successfully predicting the deep learning boom and having accurate AI timelines 40 years in advance.