You shouldn’t waste your effort in attempting 1 in situations when you will almost certainly fail,
Not quite. You want to consider the expected value of the attempt, not the raw probability of success. A 0.1% chance of curing cancer or ‘old age’ is to be preferred over an 80% chance of winning the X-Factor (particularly given that the latter applies to yourself).
It would definitely be foolish to waste effort attempting something that will certainly fail.
I agree with your qualifications, I was oversimplifying. And the reason I didn’t say certainly fail because I try to avoid using the word “certain” unless I’m dealing with purely logical systems.
And the reason I didn’t say certainly fail because I try to avoid using the word “certain” unless I’m dealing with purely logical systems.
A worthy goal. Usually that will prevent you from making claims that are technically wrong despite being inspired by good thinking. This seems to be a rare case where defaulting to not using an absolute introduces the technical problem.
Not quite. You want to consider the expected value of the attempt, not the raw probability of success. A 0.1% chance of curing cancer or ‘old age’ is to be preferred over an 80% chance of winning the X-Factor (particularly given that the latter applies to yourself).
It would definitely be foolish to waste effort attempting something that will certainly fail.
I agree with your qualifications, I was oversimplifying. And the reason I didn’t say certainly fail because I try to avoid using the word “certain” unless I’m dealing with purely logical systems.
A worthy goal. Usually that will prevent you from making claims that are technically wrong despite being inspired by good thinking. This seems to be a rare case where defaulting to not using an absolute introduces the technical problem.
Just an indication that one should avoid absolutes: even an absolute directive to avoid absolutes ;)