My prior assumption is that if someone offers me a weird bet about which I have very little information, the odds are stacked against me some way or other. The only reason I’d take the bet would be if the amount is small enough that I want to see what the trick is.
My favorite story along these lines (that I bought for $20):
I’m walking through Atlanta when I’m stopped by a man who seems likely to be homeless. He compliments my shoes, and tells me that, even beyond that, he recognizes the kind of shoe. He bets me $10 that he can tell me the city and state where I got those shoes.
I stop and think for a moment. $10 is small enough, and I’m curious to see what the trick is, so I agree, but ask for a few seconds to remember where I got the shoes. He nods and patiently waits, then I tell him to go ahead. He launches into a clearly prepared speech, which ends with “Never play a man at his own game. I didn’t say I’d tell you where you bought, purchased, or acquired those shoes- I told you I’d tell you where you got them. And you got them on your feet in Atlanta, Georgia.”
I smiled, pulled out my wallet, and didn’t have a $10 bill, so I gave him a $20.
(The gum example is a great way to trick your friends, incidentally- most people’s intuitions are wrong about which side is more likely.)
My prior assumption is that if someone offers me a weird bet about which I have very little information, the odds are stacked against me some way or other. The only reason I’d take the bet would be if the amount is small enough that I want to see what the trick is.
See footnote 2.
My favorite story along these lines (that I bought for $20):
I’m walking through Atlanta when I’m stopped by a man who seems likely to be homeless. He compliments my shoes, and tells me that, even beyond that, he recognizes the kind of shoe. He bets me $10 that he can tell me the city and state where I got those shoes.
I stop and think for a moment. $10 is small enough, and I’m curious to see what the trick is, so I agree, but ask for a few seconds to remember where I got the shoes. He nods and patiently waits, then I tell him to go ahead. He launches into a clearly prepared speech, which ends with “Never play a man at his own game. I didn’t say I’d tell you where you bought, purchased, or acquired those shoes- I told you I’d tell you where you got them. And you got them on your feet in Atlanta, Georgia.”
I smiled, pulled out my wallet, and didn’t have a $10 bill, so I gave him a $20.
(The gum example is a great way to trick your friends, incidentally- most people’s intuitions are wrong about which side is more likely.)
This is discussed in footnote 2. (And focusing on this problem isn’t in the spirit of LCPW.)