Remember the things that ALL have to be true for a “nuclear winter” to happen at all. I’m not gonna say it’s a completely debunked myth, but to me the probability is clearly low enough that I mostly ignore it in my planning. Governments have moved on from it too after the initial Soviet politically-motivated hysteria surrounding it during the 80s.
Surviving a full-scale countervalue exchange even within the US or Canada isn’t hard. The most crucial thing is to preemptively relocate so you aren’t caught and killed in the initial detonation. Anywhere outside an immediate urban boundary is far enough for this. Just make sure you’re not adjacent to any other nuclear targets, besides countervalue ones (cities) these include military & important economic/infrastructural targets. E.g. an ICBM silo/base, a major power plant, an important military industrial complex factory, a nuclear waste storage location (ISFSIs may be targeted with groundbursts to generate fallout/denied areas), etc. As long as you can avoid dying in a blast, the other most important elements are:
A good remote location, ideally with easily defendable characteristics. Isolated from large population centres and the chaos and violence being with other people can bring if society collapses.
A large supply of non-perishable food that can be stored and last you for at least 10 years.
Large and varied stock of medications. Not just for personal use to treat the countless diseases, injuries and issues you could develop for years to come but medications will be invaluable as a bartering chip in a post-attack world.
Firearms and ammunition, pretty obvious, for self-defence.
Moving to somewhere like New Zealand may still be nice for the continuity of life, because society and infrastructure there probably wouldn’t collapse at all. I mean, why would you expect a simple cessation of international trade to cause a country to collapse internally? There would doubtless be a major economic downturn caused by the loss of large countries overseas but my guess is basic law and order would remain intact.
The Open Source RISOP by David Teter is a good resource for a non-exhaustive but still fairly comprehensive list of possible Russian targets in the US, btw.
I was about to comment about how nuclear winter may not be as serious threat after reading the first few chapters of “Nuclear War Survival Skills” and then reading through the wikipedia section you linked.
On another note, why do you think 10 years of food, medication, and weapons would be needed when you also say that basic law and order would remain intact?
If there is basic law and order, then food and weapons should not be a hard requirement. I’m estimating that a large part of the population would not survive the initial attack, so food, even without modern fertilizers, should not be that hard to produce, at least in the US with all that rich land. Medication and medication for bartering—this makes sense, since manufacturing would likely take years to rebuild.
I said that about New Zealand (and probably countries outside of NATO, Russia and China in general). Canada may well have law and order intact as well, if we don’t get hit or only by a few warheads. I think commercial food availability might be restored before a decade, especially since we have more agricultural production capacity than we need, but it’s just to be on the safer side, especially since stockpiling non-perishable food really doesn’t cost much. Being so close to the US and sharing a massive border, we may be more destabilized than other non-attacked countries due to things like refugee flood etc.
Bottom line is: if you’re in the US, you need all those things I listed prepared in advance for sure. If you’re in some non-targeted country you probably don’t, but it may still be nice to have them just as a hedge in case of unexpected supply disruptions or upheaval.
Remember the things that ALL have to be true for a “nuclear winter” to happen at all. I’m not gonna say it’s a completely debunked myth, but to me the probability is clearly low enough that I mostly ignore it in my planning.
It is conjunctive, but I’ve run probability distributions in a Monte Carlo model in a journal article and got about 20% chance of agricultural collapse given full scale nuclear war. So I think it is important for planning, as the consequences are far larger than the direct effects.
Remember the things that ALL have to be true for a “nuclear winter” to happen at all. I’m not gonna say it’s a completely debunked myth, but to me the probability is clearly low enough that I mostly ignore it in my planning. Governments have moved on from it too after the initial Soviet politically-motivated hysteria surrounding it during the 80s.
Surviving a full-scale countervalue exchange even within the US or Canada isn’t hard. The most crucial thing is to preemptively relocate so you aren’t caught and killed in the initial detonation. Anywhere outside an immediate urban boundary is far enough for this. Just make sure you’re not adjacent to any other nuclear targets, besides countervalue ones (cities) these include military & important economic/infrastructural targets. E.g. an ICBM silo/base, a major power plant, an important military industrial complex factory, a nuclear waste storage location (ISFSIs may be targeted with groundbursts to generate fallout/denied areas), etc. As long as you can avoid dying in a blast, the other most important elements are:
A good remote location, ideally with easily defendable characteristics. Isolated from large population centres and the chaos and violence being with other people can bring if society collapses.
A large supply of non-perishable food that can be stored and last you for at least 10 years.
Large and varied stock of medications. Not just for personal use to treat the countless diseases, injuries and issues you could develop for years to come but medications will be invaluable as a bartering chip in a post-attack world.
Firearms and ammunition, pretty obvious, for self-defence.
Moving to somewhere like New Zealand may still be nice for the continuity of life, because society and infrastructure there probably wouldn’t collapse at all. I mean, why would you expect a simple cessation of international trade to cause a country to collapse internally? There would doubtless be a major economic downturn caused by the loss of large countries overseas but my guess is basic law and order would remain intact.
The Open Source RISOP by David Teter is a good resource for a non-exhaustive but still fairly comprehensive list of possible Russian targets in the US, btw.
That looks excellent! Thank you!
I was about to comment about how nuclear winter may not be as serious threat after reading the first few chapters of “Nuclear War Survival Skills” and then reading through the wikipedia section you linked.
On another note, why do you think 10 years of food, medication, and weapons would be needed when you also say that basic law and order would remain intact?
If there is basic law and order, then food and weapons should not be a hard requirement. I’m estimating that a large part of the population would not survive the initial attack, so food, even without modern fertilizers, should not be that hard to produce, at least in the US with all that rich land. Medication and medication for bartering—this makes sense, since manufacturing would likely take years to rebuild.
I said that about New Zealand (and probably countries outside of NATO, Russia and China in general). Canada may well have law and order intact as well, if we don’t get hit or only by a few warheads. I think commercial food availability might be restored before a decade, especially since we have more agricultural production capacity than we need, but it’s just to be on the safer side, especially since stockpiling non-perishable food really doesn’t cost much. Being so close to the US and sharing a massive border, we may be more destabilized than other non-attacked countries due to things like refugee flood etc.
Bottom line is: if you’re in the US, you need all those things I listed prepared in advance for sure. If you’re in some non-targeted country you probably don’t, but it may still be nice to have them just as a hedge in case of unexpected supply disruptions or upheaval.
It is conjunctive, but I’ve run probability distributions in a Monte Carlo model in a journal article and got about 20% chance of agricultural collapse given full scale nuclear war. So I think it is important for planning, as the consequences are far larger than the direct effects.
Luisa says Rodriguez says a US-Russia exchange is 5.1 to 58 Tg of schmutz in the atmosphere. Her best guess is 31 Tg. A NATO-Russia exchange would be larger. Important figures below. 31 Tg puts us on the edge of “nuclear autumn.” Full scale NATO-Russia is probably nuclear winter.