Remember the things that ALL have to be true for a “nuclear winter” to happen at all. I’m not gonna say it’s a completely debunked myth, but to me the probability is clearly low enough that I mostly ignore it in my planning.
It is conjunctive, but I’ve run probability distributions in a Monte Carlo model in a journal article and got about 20% chance of agricultural collapse given full scale nuclear war. So I think it is important for planning, as the consequences are far larger than the direct effects.
It is conjunctive, but I’ve run probability distributions in a Monte Carlo model in a journal article and got about 20% chance of agricultural collapse given full scale nuclear war. So I think it is important for planning, as the consequences are far larger than the direct effects.