A chance of 50% or so here seems reasonable, with the default being ‘you can’t actually please the whole coalition at once and often there’s still a pandemic and people will blame you for it.’
Have we made more or less progress than you thought we would by now? (Or did you not take that into account?)
29.6% as a Shilling point
Is that an intentional spelling? Or is it [Schelling point]?
a major flare up here
a major flare up here
(I didn’t finish reading because this was getting to be like reading twitter, except dryer.)
Not sure what you mean by progress in context of Biden’s approval rating. Biden’s probably accomplished less of his goals than I’d expected, but not too surprisingly less.
Was definitely supposed to be Schelling, misspelled in original.
We have made less progress than I expected on that front, to be sure, and far less than Biden expected or promised, or than most people expected or felt they were promised.
How much of that is “variants appeared faster, more frequently, and were more important than expected” vs various “performance of person/instutution X was worse that expected”?
Edit: You mostly answered this in your post for yourself/your predictions, so I guess more asking if you think lots of other people had the same misconseption. I wasn’t expecting the additional waves to continue to be this big a deal and I think my prediction failure was mostly on not expectign the virus to have this much fight in it.
Have we made more or less progress than you thought we would by now? (Or did you not take that into account?)
Is that an intentional spelling? Or is it [Schelling point]?
a major flare up here
(I didn’t finish reading because this was getting to be like reading twitter, except dryer.)
Not sure what you mean by progress in context of Biden’s approval rating. Biden’s probably accomplished less of his goals than I’d expected, but not too surprisingly less.
Was definitely supposed to be Schelling, misspelled in original.
‘Progress’ relating to the pandemic.
We have made less progress than I expected on that front, to be sure, and far less than Biden expected or promised, or than most people expected or felt they were promised.
How much of that is “variants appeared faster, more frequently, and were more important than expected” vs various “performance of person/instutution X was worse that expected”?
Edit: You mostly answered this in your post for yourself/your predictions, so I guess more asking if you think lots of other people had the same misconseption. I wasn’t expecting the additional waves to continue to be this big a deal and I think my prediction failure was mostly on not expectign the virus to have this much fight in it.