I was going off absence of evidence (the paper didn’t say anything other than taking the top 2%), so if anyone else has positive evidence that outweighs what I’m saying.
See my response below—and the dataset of forecasts is now public if you wanted to check the numbers.
I was going off absence of evidence (the paper didn’t say anything other than taking the top 2%), so if anyone else has positive evidence that outweighs what I’m saying.
See my response below—and the dataset of forecasts is now public if you wanted to check the numbers.