I noticed that your prediction and jmh’s prediction are almost the exact opposite:
Teerth: 80%: No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid) (by 2030)
jmh: 90%: Humans living on the moon (by 2030)
(I plotted this here to show the difference, although this makes the assumption that you think the probability is ~uniformly distributed from 2030 – 2100). Curious why you think these differ so much? Especially jmh, since 90% by 2030 is more surprising—the Metaculus prediction for when the next human being will walk on the moon has a median of 2031.
Difference in intuition. Otherwise, I think that there will be no state-sponsored space colonization program- and there will be no incentive for any private organization to establish a colony—given the price of sending and sustaining.
Do you mean formally (as in changing the wording in constitution, etc.), or by some particular pragmatic measure? I can understand where it’s coming from and vaguely even agree, but I’m curious if you have any measurable indicators for this in mind.
and communal violence will become more common.
Care to put any numbers on this, for eg. number of communal incidents in a year or whatever similar measure is available?
The human population will be more than 8 billion, and the population of India will reach 1.5 billion. 90%
India’s GDP would rise up to 5 trillion dollars. 70%
India will cease to be a secular state, and communal violence will become more common. 50%
Russia’s GDP will be less than 2 trillion dollars. 60%
No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid). 80%
USA would have less than 1000 troops in Afghanistan. 80%
A new civil war or high-level insurgency will break out in Syria. 50%
Israel would not have vacated West Bank. 80%
There will be 3000+ active nuclear warheads. 90%
Average predicted year of arrival of AGI will be revised by +10 years at-least. 40%
At least 1 more genetically modified human will be born. 100%
I noticed that your prediction and jmh’s prediction are almost the exact opposite:
Teerth: 80%: No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid) (by 2030)
jmh: 90%: Humans living on the moon (by 2030)
(I plotted this here to show the difference, although this makes the assumption that you think the probability is ~uniformly distributed from 2030 – 2100). Curious why you think these differ so much? Especially jmh, since 90% by 2030 is more surprising—the Metaculus prediction for when the next human being will walk on the moon has a median of 2031.
Difference in intuition. Otherwise, I think that there will be no state-sponsored space colonization program- and there will be no incentive for any private organization to establish a colony—given the price of sending and sustaining.
Do you mean formally (as in changing the wording in constitution, etc.), or by some particular pragmatic measure? I can understand where it’s coming from and vaguely even agree, but I’m curious if you have any measurable indicators for this in mind.
Care to put any numbers on this, for eg. number of communal incidents in a year or whatever similar measure is available?
I think that the Constitution of India might be modified to declare it a ‘Hindu nation’