I noticed that your prediction and jmh’s prediction are almost the exact opposite:
Teerth: 80%: No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid) (by 2030)
jmh: 90%: Humans living on the moon (by 2030)
(I plotted this here to show the difference, although this makes the assumption that you think the probability is ~uniformly distributed from 2030 – 2100). Curious why you think these differ so much? Especially jmh, since 90% by 2030 is more surprising—the Metaculus prediction for when the next human being will walk on the moon has a median of 2031.
Difference in intuition. Otherwise, I think that there will be no state-sponsored space colonization program- and there will be no incentive for any private organization to establish a colony—given the price of sending and sustaining.
I noticed that your prediction and jmh’s prediction are almost the exact opposite:
Teerth: 80%: No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid) (by 2030)
jmh: 90%: Humans living on the moon (by 2030)
(I plotted this here to show the difference, although this makes the assumption that you think the probability is ~uniformly distributed from 2030 – 2100). Curious why you think these differ so much? Especially jmh, since 90% by 2030 is more surprising—the Metaculus prediction for when the next human being will walk on the moon has a median of 2031.
Difference in intuition. Otherwise, I think that there will be no state-sponsored space colonization program- and there will be no incentive for any private organization to establish a colony—given the price of sending and sustaining.