1) The global multilateral political and economic institutions fail and relationships return to more bi-lateral and regional based systems largely replaces it. Not that something like the UN disappears only that it merely serves as a location for discussion but not seen (which is clearly is not even now) any type of global government with any authority over the member states. 70%
2) A second global financial crisis of larger scale than 2007-2009 period. 50%
3) North Korea recognized as a nuclear state. (20 − 30%). Resulting in the effective abandonment of the current non-proliferation agreements. (20%). Followed by the complete abandonment of all arms limitation agreements and the development of even more destructive weapons (to counter the growing nuclear threats). (80% -- this is already occurring)
4) A military strike on North Korea or Iran to clearly deter or eliminate the nuclear proliferation. (60%)
5) First global was of the 21st Century (possibly sparked by 4). 40%
6) South Korea and Philippines change alliance from USA to China and support it’s 9 dash line claims. Taiwan war with mainland China. 35%
7) Hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China. (40%) China then must concede on its 9-dash line claim (50%) and recognize Taiwan’s independence (coupled with Taiwan halting any support for revolts in southern mainland China) (25%) to sign peace agreement with USA. (25%). New/stronger economic & political relationships formed with Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, South Korea resulting in significant isolation of China from trade and production relationships with rest of the world. (35%) (End result here is much stronger ASEAN member economies and them becoming the gate keepers as it were to economic relations with the mainland China economy.)
8) EU either falls completed apart as a political union (but remains a close, largely open and free trade union) (40%) or fully integrates into a federation of member states under a common federal government. (35%)
9) Some country severs political ties with communist China due to both its political subterfuge and its economic threats/response and the actions of its citizens residing in other countries (such as Canada or Australia)) who insist on imposing the Chinese view of thing on local populations—primarily violent reactions by Chinese nationals to legal free speech and criticism of CCP policies. (50%) May result in a domino effect.
10) Humans living on the moon. (90%)
11) Space economy (think resource mining and manufacturing) at or above break even. (70%)
12) First interstellar ship launch to conduct research designed specifically for extra-solar system research. (Voyager doesn’t count. 80%)
13) Limited nuclear weapons (tactical) use become normal. (10%)
14) Aliens decide the galaxy has a better use for the space our solar system occupies and builds a super highway though it, destroying all human civilization. (1%)
15) The scientific community finally acknowledges we know very little about how the universe works and that we’re better describes as being infants in a crib trying to make sense of the room we’re in and barely able to see the larger world outside that room. (1%) (Which is not to say we cannot do lots of very useful things with the limited and incomplete knowledge we have.)
16) Cheap energy is developed and a transition plan for replacing all the existing social and economic structure built around expensive energy implemented leading to a rethink about property rights in many items and how we product and exchange—and work. (5%) Will lead to greater autarky at smaller levels reducing some of the scarcity driven conflict in the world. (10% -- assuming cheap energy is realized and not stifled/withheld).
17) We move away from an intrusive advertising based payment approach for many of the online services/tools allowing increased protection of privacy and people in general. Advertising might still be better targeted but the repositories of the data change (perhaps become privately/individually held). Perhaps moving from a push type delivery model to that of pull. (15%)
I recognised the humour and was responding in kind—specifically that if we are destroyed by aliens then I’m unlikely to be in a position to pay you what I owe...
But several of your predictions seem way too confident, given how specific they are. 6,7,14 in particular. 40% for
Hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China
15? More humility mostly but should probably have limited that to certain fields, such as cosmology, rather than painting with a really large brush.
As for the assessed probabilities, I can only hope you are correct.
As for the burdensome details, I’m not sure that applies (but thanks for the link and I will read it more fully and reconsider). I have reformatted the item—whether or not that changes it being a burdensome details error....
1) The global multilateral political and economic institutions fail and relationships return to more bi-lateral and regional based systems largely replaces it. Not that something like the UN disappears only that it merely serves as a location for discussion but not seen (which is clearly is not even now) any type of global government with any authority over the member states. 70%
2) A second global financial crisis of larger scale than 2007-2009 period. 50%
3) North Korea recognized as a nuclear state. (20 − 30%). Resulting in the effective abandonment of the current non-proliferation agreements. (20%). Followed by the complete abandonment of all arms limitation agreements and the development of even more destructive weapons (to counter the growing nuclear threats). (80% -- this is already occurring)
4) A military strike on North Korea or Iran to clearly deter or eliminate the nuclear proliferation. (60%)
5) First global was of the 21st Century (possibly sparked by 4). 40%
6) South Korea and Philippines change alliance from USA to China and support it’s 9 dash line claims. Taiwan war with mainland China. 35%
7) Hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China. (40%) China then must concede on its 9-dash line claim (50%) and recognize Taiwan’s independence (coupled with Taiwan halting any support for revolts in southern mainland China) (25%) to sign peace agreement with USA. (25%). New/stronger economic & political relationships formed with Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, South Korea resulting in significant isolation of China from trade and production relationships with rest of the world. (35%) (End result here is much stronger ASEAN member economies and them becoming the gate keepers as it were to economic relations with the mainland China economy.)
8) EU either falls completed apart as a political union (but remains a close, largely open and free trade union) (40%) or fully integrates into a federation of member states under a common federal government. (35%)
9) Some country severs political ties with communist China due to both its political subterfuge and its economic threats/response and the actions of its citizens residing in other countries (such as Canada or Australia)) who insist on imposing the Chinese view of thing on local populations—primarily violent reactions by Chinese nationals to legal free speech and criticism of CCP policies. (50%) May result in a domino effect.
10) Humans living on the moon. (90%)
11) Space economy (think resource mining and manufacturing) at or above break even. (70%)
12) First interstellar ship launch to conduct research designed specifically for extra-solar system research. (Voyager doesn’t count. 80%)
13) Limited nuclear weapons (tactical) use become normal. (10%)
14) Aliens decide the galaxy has a better use for the space our solar system occupies and builds a super highway though it, destroying all human civilization. (1%)
15) The scientific community finally acknowledges we know very little about how the universe works and that we’re better describes as being infants in a crib trying to make sense of the room we’re in and barely able to see the larger world outside that room. (1%) (Which is not to say we cannot do lots of very useful things with the limited and incomplete knowledge we have.)
16) Cheap energy is developed and a transition plan for replacing all the existing social and economic structure built around expensive energy implemented leading to a rethink about property rights in many items and how we product and exchange—and work. (5%) Will lead to greater autarky at smaller levels reducing some of the scarcity driven conflict in the world. (10% -- assuming cheap energy is realized and not stifled/withheld).
17) We move away from an intrusive advertising based payment approach for many of the online services/tools allowing increased protection of privacy and people in general. Advertising might still be better targeted but the repositories of the data change (perhaps become privately/individually held). Perhaps moving from a push type delivery model to that of pull. (15%)
Re (7), there’s a laughable amount of conjunction on even the first prediction in the chain.
I’m willing to place a large bet on 14 at 1000:1
If we are not destroyed by aliens then you owe me $1,000,000, if we are all destroyed by aliens then I owe you $1,000,000,000.
You don’t seem to recognize an attempt at humor. I take it you never read A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.
I recognised the humour and was responding in kind—specifically that if we are destroyed by aliens then I’m unlikely to be in a position to pay you what I owe...
5′s confidence seems a bit high, as does 10.
But several of your predictions seem way too confident, given how specific they are. 6,7,14 in particular. 40% for
seems wrong due to its burdensome details.
What would 15) mean, exactly?
15? More humility mostly but should probably have limited that to certain fields, such as cosmology, rather than painting with a really large brush.
As for the assessed probabilities, I can only hope you are correct.
As for the burdensome details, I’m not sure that applies (but thanks for the link and I will read it more fully and reconsider). I have reformatted the item—whether or not that changes it being a burdensome details error....