But several of your predictions seem way too confident, given how specific they are. 6,7,14 in particular. 40% for
Hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China
15? More humility mostly but should probably have limited that to certain fields, such as cosmology, rather than painting with a really large brush.
As for the assessed probabilities, I can only hope you are correct.
As for the burdensome details, I’m not sure that applies (but thanks for the link and I will read it more fully and reconsider). I have reformatted the item—whether or not that changes it being a burdensome details error....
5′s confidence seems a bit high, as does 10.
But several of your predictions seem way too confident, given how specific they are. 6,7,14 in particular. 40% for
seems wrong due to its burdensome details.
What would 15) mean, exactly?
15? More humility mostly but should probably have limited that to certain fields, such as cosmology, rather than painting with a really large brush.
As for the assessed probabilities, I can only hope you are correct.
As for the burdensome details, I’m not sure that applies (but thanks for the link and I will read it more fully and reconsider). I have reformatted the item—whether or not that changes it being a burdensome details error....