Industrial / financial consolidation will continue instead of reversing, and the ‘superstar cities’ phenomenon will be stronger in 2030 than 2020. (90%)
The ‘higher education bubble’ will burst. (80%) This feels mostly like a “you’ll know it when you see it” thing, but clear evidence would be a substantial decrease in the fraction of Americans going to college, or a significant decline in the wage premium for “any college diploma” over a high school diploma (while perhaps some diplomas will retain significant wage premiums). [Edit 2020-1-1: on further reflection I think this is more like 70%.]
No armed conflict between Japan and any of its neighbors. (70%)
My favorite movie released between 2020 and 2029 will be animated instead of live-action. (60%)
Queen Elizabeth II will still be alive. (30%) [This requires her to make it to 103; life expectancy for a 93-year old British woman is only 3.64 years, her mother made it to 101, her father to 56, and her sister to 71. It seems unlikely that new medical technology will make a significant difference during that time; basically the only medication I expect to be available in time to do anything useful will be metformin.]
Emperor Emeritus Akihito will still be alive. (30%) [This requires him to make it to 96; while life expectancy for a 86-year old Japanese man is 6.3 years, he’s already abdicated due to poor health.]
Re: higher education bubble, do you also predict that tuition increases will not outpace inflation?
My model doesn’t give a detailed answer; I think I expect the number and type of people participating in higher education to change, and then it’s unclear what that will do to average tuition. For example, in worlds where all undergraduate education becomes free-to-the-end-user but med school and law school still exist, the tuition statistics become apples to oranges.
Okay then, how about higher education as a fraction of GDP?
When I tried to calculate the equivalent thing for real estate and GDP for the 2008 financial crisis, as far as I can tell the fraction of GDP provided by real estate went up instead of down. The bubble bursting is clearly visible in the home price index, tho. So if someone creates a ‘degree value index’, that’s where I’d expect to see it; the closest approximations that I’m aware of are the wage premium and underemployment rate (this can point to a few things; I mean the “person with a degree working a job you don’t need a degree for” one instead of the “unemployed plus part-time seeking full-time work” one).
[Also I’m going to ping Bryan Caplan and see if he has a good operationalization.]
Bryan bets on the percentage of 18-24 year olds enrolled in 4-year degree-granting institutions (here’s 2000-2017 numbers). I’m sort of astounded that anyone would take the other side of the bet as he proposed it (a decline from 30% to 20% over the course of 10 years); in my mind a decline from 30% to 25% would be ‘substantial’.
For the more specific version that I have in mind (a ‘coming apart’ of “bachelor’s degrees” and “valuable bachelor’s degrees”), I think it has to show up in a change of enrollment statistics split out by major, which might be too hard to operationalize ahead of time.
Sorted approximately by strength:
The UK will leave the European Union. (95%)
Industrial / financial consolidation will continue instead of reversing, and the ‘superstar cities’ phenomenon will be stronger in 2030 than 2020. (90%)
The ‘higher education bubble’ will burst. (80%) This feels mostly like a “you’ll know it when you see it” thing, but clear evidence would be a substantial decrease in the fraction of Americans going to college, or a significant decline in the wage premium for “any college diploma” over a high school diploma (while perhaps some diplomas will retain significant wage premiums). [Edit 2020-1-1: on further reflection I think this is more like 70%.]
No armed conflict between Japan and any of its neighbors. (70%)
My favorite movie released between 2020 and 2029 will be animated instead of live-action. (60%)
Queen Elizabeth II will still be alive. (30%) [This requires her to make it to 103; life expectancy for a 93-year old British woman is only 3.64 years, her mother made it to 101, her father to 56, and her sister to 71. It seems unlikely that new medical technology will make a significant difference during that time; basically the only medication I expect to be available in time to do anything useful will be metformin.]
Emperor Emeritus Akihito will still be alive. (30%) [This requires him to make it to 96; while life expectancy for a 86-year old Japanese man is 6.3 years, he’s already abdicated due to poor health.]
Re: higher education bubble, do you also predict that tuition increases will not outpace inflation?
Also, I think the law school bubble burst in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the contraction in law firms, which you can see in student enrollment statistics but not inflation-adjusted tuition.
My model doesn’t give a detailed answer; I think I expect the number and type of people participating in higher education to change, and then it’s unclear what that will do to average tuition. For example, in worlds where all undergraduate education becomes free-to-the-end-user but med school and law school still exist, the tuition statistics become apples to oranges.
Okay then, how about higher education as a fraction of GDP?
When I tried to calculate the equivalent thing for real estate and GDP for the 2008 financial crisis, as far as I can tell the fraction of GDP provided by real estate went up instead of down. The bubble bursting is clearly visible in the home price index, tho. So if someone creates a ‘degree value index’, that’s where I’d expect to see it; the closest approximations that I’m aware of are the wage premium and underemployment rate (this can point to a few things; I mean the “person with a degree working a job you don’t need a degree for” one instead of the “unemployed plus part-time seeking full-time work” one).
[Also I’m going to ping Bryan Caplan and see if he has a good operationalization.]
Bryan bets on the percentage of 18-24 year olds enrolled in 4-year degree-granting institutions (here’s 2000-2017 numbers). I’m sort of astounded that anyone would take the other side of the bet as he proposed it (a decline from 30% to 20% over the course of 10 years); in my mind a decline from 30% to 25% would be ‘substantial’.
For the more specific version that I have in mind (a ‘coming apart’ of “bachelor’s degrees” and “valuable bachelor’s degrees”), I think it has to show up in a change of enrollment statistics split out by major, which might be too hard to operationalize ahead of time.