Bryan bets on the percentage of 18-24 year olds enrolled in 4-year degree-granting institutions (here’s 2000-2017 numbers). I’m sort of astounded that anyone would take the other side of the bet as he proposed it (a decline from 30% to 20% over the course of 10 years); in my mind a decline from 30% to 25% would be ‘substantial’.
For the more specific version that I have in mind (a ‘coming apart’ of “bachelor’s degrees” and “valuable bachelor’s degrees”), I think it has to show up in a change of enrollment statistics split out by major, which might be too hard to operationalize ahead of time.
Bryan bets on the percentage of 18-24 year olds enrolled in 4-year degree-granting institutions (here’s 2000-2017 numbers). I’m sort of astounded that anyone would take the other side of the bet as he proposed it (a decline from 30% to 20% over the course of 10 years); in my mind a decline from 30% to 25% would be ‘substantial’.
For the more specific version that I have in mind (a ‘coming apart’ of “bachelor’s degrees” and “valuable bachelor’s degrees”), I think it has to show up in a change of enrollment statistics split out by major, which might be too hard to operationalize ahead of time.