I agree, what matters is calibration and resolution.
If you’re talking about an individual s prediction that is, I’m unconvinced that group calibration would be a useful epistemic yardstick in this instance.
Note also that its’ impossible to determine “a majority of predictions to be oveconfident” as a literal statement. A prediction is only right or wrong, overconfidence can only be looked at in terms of the aggregate (which is what I meant in the original post).
I agree, what matters is calibration and resolution.
If you’re talking about an individual s prediction that is, I’m unconvinced that group calibration would be a useful epistemic yardstick in this instance.
Note also that its’ impossible to determine “a majority of predictions to be oveconfident” as a literal statement. A prediction is only right or wrong, overconfidence can only be looked at in terms of the aggregate (which is what I meant in the original post).