Sometimes the conclusion you can derive from the made up numbers is worse than a directly intuited conclusion, since the latter is one step closer to native form of the request for answers from the brain.
This post should review the arguments in When (Not) To Use Probabilities.
The lesson of that post is basically “don’t let yourself be deceived into thinking your calibration is better than it is”. But if you’re poorly calibrated, better to know this, and giving explicit probability estimates may help you find this out.
This post should review the arguments in When (Not) To Use Probabilities.
Sometimes the conclusion you can derive from the made up numbers is worse than a directly intuited conclusion, since the latter is one step closer to native form of the request for answers from the brain.
The lesson of that post is basically “don’t let yourself be deceived into thinking your calibration is better than it is”. But if you’re poorly calibrated, better to know this, and giving explicit probability estimates may help you find this out.
Hiding your judgements doesn’t make them better.