I’m thinking of people like Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, John Wentworth, Ajeya Cotra… [...] I do agree with you that they seem to on average be way way too optimistic, but I don’t think it’s because they are ignorant of the considerations and arguments you’ve made here.
I don’t think Nate is that much more optimistic than Eliezer, but I believe Eliezer thinks Nate couldn’t have generated enough of the list in the OP, or couldn’t have generated enough of it independently (“using the null string as input”).
I don’t think Nate is that much more optimistic than Eliezer, but I believe Eliezer thinks Nate couldn’t have generated enough of the list in the OP, or couldn’t have generated enough of it independently (“using the null string as input”).