Yeah. It seems worth reviewing what is was about that innovation in particular that caused people to update, so we can have a better general model of when, “after critical event W happens, they still won’t believe you”, and when it turns out that they will!
I’m wondering if GPT-5 or Gemini would snap people like LeCun out of their complacency. I suspect LeCun has a pretty detailed model of intelligence which implies things like mesa-optimization not being a problem etc. as well as further scaling successes being implausible. Something like Gemini having a good enough world model to do plenty of physical reasoning in a simulation may violate enough of his assumptions that he actually updates.
Yeah. It seems worth reviewing what is was about that innovation in particular that caused people to update, so we can have a better general model of when, “after critical event W happens, they still won’t believe you”, and when it turns out that they will!
I’m wondering if GPT-5 or Gemini would snap people like LeCun out of their complacency. I suspect LeCun has a pretty detailed model of intelligence which implies things like mesa-optimization not being a problem etc. as well as further scaling successes being implausible. Something like Gemini having a good enough world model to do plenty of physical reasoning in a simulation may violate enough of his assumptions that he actually updates.