The analogy I had in mind is not so much in exact nature of the problem, but in the aspect it’s hard to make explicit precise models of such situations in advance. In case of nukes, consider the fact that smartest minds of the time, like von Neumann or Feynman, spent decent amount of time thinking about the problems, had clever explicit models, and were wrong—in case of von Neumann to the extent that if US followed his advice, they would have launched nuclear armageddon.
The analogy I had in mind is not so much in exact nature of the problem, but in the aspect it’s hard to make explicit precise models of such situations in advance. In case of nukes, consider the fact that smartest minds of the time, like von Neumann or Feynman, spent decent amount of time thinking about the problems, had clever explicit models, and were wrong—in case of von Neumann to the extent that if US followed his advice, they would have launched nuclear armageddon.