One big difference is GoF currently does not seem that dangerous to governments. If you look on it from a perspective not focusing on the layer of individual humans as agents, but instead states, corporations, memplexes and similar creatures as the agents, GoF maybe does not look that scary? Sure, there was covid, but while it was clearly really bad for humans, it mostly made governments/states relatively stronger.
Taking this difference into account, my model was and still is governments will react to AI.
This does not imply reacting in a helpful way, but I think whether the reaction will be helpful, harmful or just random is actually one of the higher variance parameters, and a point of leverage. (And the common-on-LW stance governments are stupid and evil and you should mostly ignore them is unhelpful in both understanding and influencing the situation.)
One big difference is GoF currently does not seem that dangerous to governments. If you look on it from a perspective not focusing on the layer of individual humans as agents, but instead states, corporations, memplexes and similar creatures as the agents, GoF maybe does not look that scary? Sure, there was covid, but while it was clearly really bad for humans, it mostly made governments/states relatively stronger.
Taking this difference into account, my model was and still is governments will react to AI.
This does not imply reacting in a helpful way, but I think whether the reaction will be helpful, harmful or just random is actually one of the higher variance parameters, and a point of leverage. (And the common-on-LW stance governments are stupid and evil and you should mostly ignore them is unhelpful in both understanding and influencing the situation.)