This is using your brain as an outcome pump. Start with a conclusion to be defended, observations that prima facie blow it out of the water, and generate ideas for holding onto the conclusion regardless.
That may be what I am doing. But sometimes, there are things that really are different to what the prima facie evidence seems to suggest. Heat is not an effect of the transfer of a liquid called phlogiston; the Sun does not go round the Earth; the Sun is bigger than the Earth. Sometimes, there are hidden complexities that change the meaning of some of the evidence.
War really is good for humanity! But what then is the optimal amount of suffering?
Ah, an excellent question. I can’t be sure, but I expect that the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see.
This leads to the obvious question; why would a benevolent, omniscient, omnipotent God create a universe with more suffering than is necessary? This requires that there be something that is more important than reducing suffering; such that the increased suffering optimises better for this other something. I do think that this something that is more important exists, and I think that it is free will. Free will implies the freedom to cause unnecessary suffering in others; and some people do this. War, for example, is a direct consequence of the free will of military leaders and politicians.
At some point one has to ask, where did that conclusion come from? Why do I believe it so intensely as to make all of the retconning seem sensible? Why indeed? Because earlier you expressed only a lukewarm belief:
I found, through my life, very little evidence against the existence of God, and some slight evidence for the existence of God.
I don’t see that as necessarily a statement of lukewarm belief. I just didn’t couch it in impressive-sounding terms.
What about suffering which is not caused by humans ? For example, consider earthquakes, floods, volcano eruptions, asteroid impacts, plague outbreaks, and the like. To use a lighter example, do we really need as many cases of the common cold as we are currently experiencing all over the world ?
The common answer to this question is something along the lines of “God moves in mysterious ways”—which does make sense once you posit such a God—but you said that “the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see”, so perhaps you have a different answer ?
I think that suffering that is limited only to what humans cannot prevent would be the optimal amount. This is because it is the amount that would exist in the optimal universe, i.e. where each individual human strives to be maximally good.
As for cases of the common cold, a lot of those are preventable; given proper medical research and distribution of medicines. Since they are preventable, I think that they should be prevented.
Well, technically, volcano eruptions and such can be prevented as well, given a sufficient level of technology. But let’s stick with the common cold as the example—why does it even exist at all ? If the humans could eventually prevent it, thus reducing the amount of suffering, then the current amount of suffering is suboptimal. When you said that “the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see”, I assumed that you were talking about the unavoidable amount of suffering caused by humans exercising their free will. The common cold, however, is not anthropogenic.
...that is a very good question. The best idea that I can come up with is that the optimal amount of suffering is time-dependent in some way. That, if the purpose of suffering is to try to improve people to some ideal, then a society that produces people who are closer to that ideal to start with would require less suffering. And that a society in which the cure to the common cold can be found, and can then be distributed to everyone, is closer to that ideal society than a society in which that is not the case.
That kind of makes sense. Of course, the standard objection to your answer is something like the following: “This seems like a rather inefficient way to design the ideal society. If I was building intelligent agents from scratch, and I wanted them to conform to some ideal; then I’d just build them to do that from the start, instead of messing around with tsunamis and common colds”.
It does seem inefficient. This would appear to imply that the universe is optimised according to multiple criteria, weighted in an unknown manner; presumably one of those other criteria is important enough to eliminate that solution.
It’s pretty clear that the universe was not built to produce a quick output. It took several billion years of runtime just to produce a society at all—it’s a short step from there to the conclusion that there’s some thing or things in the far future (possibly another mere billion years away), that we probably don’t even have the language to describe yet, that are also a part of the purpose of the universe.
It’s pretty clear that the universe was not built to produce a quick output. It took several billion years of runtime just to produce a society at all—it’s a short step from there to the conclusion that there’s some thing or things in the far future (possibly another mere billion years away), that we probably don’t even have the language to describe yet, that are also a part of the purpose of the universe.
This suggests a new heresy to me: God, creator of the universe, exists, but we, far from being the pinnacle of His creation, are merely an irrelevant by-product of His grand design. We do not merit so much as eye-blink from Him in the vasty aeons, and had better hope not to receive even that much attention. When He throws galaxies at each other, what becomes of whatever intelligent life may have populated them?
The quotidian implications of this are not greatly different from atheism. We’re on our own, it’s up to us to make the best of it.
That’s a very interesting thought. Personally, I don’t think that we’re a completely irrelevant by-product (for various reasons), but I see nothing against the hypothesis that we’re more of a pleasant side-effect than the actual pinnacle of creation. The actual pinnacle of creation might very well be something that will be created by a Friendly AI—or even by an Unfriendly AI—vast aeons in the future.
When He throws galaxies at each other, what becomes of whatever intelligent life may have populated them?
Given the length of time it takes for galaxies to collide, I’d guess that the intelligent life probably develops a technological civilisation, recognises their danger, and still has a few million years to take steps to protect themselves. Evacuation is probably a feasible strategy, though probably not the best strategy, in that sort of timeframe.
That may be what I am doing. But sometimes, there are things that really are different to what the prima facie evidence seems to suggest. Heat is not an effect of the transfer of a liquid called phlogiston; the Sun does not go round the Earth; the Sun is bigger than the Earth. Sometimes, there are hidden complexities that change the meaning of some of the evidence.
Ah, an excellent question. I can’t be sure, but I expect that the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see.
This leads to the obvious question; why would a benevolent, omniscient, omnipotent God create a universe with more suffering than is necessary? This requires that there be something that is more important than reducing suffering; such that the increased suffering optimises better for this other something. I do think that this something that is more important exists, and I think that it is free will. Free will implies the freedom to cause unnecessary suffering in others; and some people do this. War, for example, is a direct consequence of the free will of military leaders and politicians.
I don’t see that as necessarily a statement of lukewarm belief. I just didn’t couch it in impressive-sounding terms.
What about suffering which is not caused by humans ? For example, consider earthquakes, floods, volcano eruptions, asteroid impacts, plague outbreaks, and the like. To use a lighter example, do we really need as many cases of the common cold as we are currently experiencing all over the world ?
The common answer to this question is something along the lines of “God moves in mysterious ways”—which does make sense once you posit such a God—but you said that “the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see”, so perhaps you have a different answer ?
I think that suffering that is limited only to what humans cannot prevent would be the optimal amount. This is because it is the amount that would exist in the optimal universe, i.e. where each individual human strives to be maximally good.
As for cases of the common cold, a lot of those are preventable; given proper medical research and distribution of medicines. Since they are preventable, I think that they should be prevented.
Well, technically, volcano eruptions and such can be prevented as well, given a sufficient level of technology. But let’s stick with the common cold as the example—why does it even exist at all ? If the humans could eventually prevent it, thus reducing the amount of suffering, then the current amount of suffering is suboptimal. When you said that “the optimal amount of suffering is a good deal less than we see”, I assumed that you were talking about the unavoidable amount of suffering caused by humans exercising their free will. The common cold, however, is not anthropogenic.
...that is a very good question. The best idea that I can come up with is that the optimal amount of suffering is time-dependent in some way. That, if the purpose of suffering is to try to improve people to some ideal, then a society that produces people who are closer to that ideal to start with would require less suffering. And that a society in which the cure to the common cold can be found, and can then be distributed to everyone, is closer to that ideal society than a society in which that is not the case.
That kind of makes sense. Of course, the standard objection to your answer is something like the following: “This seems like a rather inefficient way to design the ideal society. If I was building intelligent agents from scratch, and I wanted them to conform to some ideal; then I’d just build them to do that from the start, instead of messing around with tsunamis and common colds”.
It does seem inefficient. This would appear to imply that the universe is optimised according to multiple criteria, weighted in an unknown manner; presumably one of those other criteria is important enough to eliminate that solution.
It’s pretty clear that the universe was not built to produce a quick output. It took several billion years of runtime just to produce a society at all—it’s a short step from there to the conclusion that there’s some thing or things in the far future (possibly another mere billion years away), that we probably don’t even have the language to describe yet, that are also a part of the purpose of the universe.
This suggests a new heresy to me: God, creator of the universe, exists, but we, far from being the pinnacle of His creation, are merely an irrelevant by-product of His grand design. We do not merit so much as eye-blink from Him in the vasty aeons, and had better hope not to receive even that much attention. When He throws galaxies at each other, what becomes of whatever intelligent life may have populated them?
The quotidian implications of this are not greatly different from atheism. We’re on our own, it’s up to us to make the best of it.
That’s a very interesting thought. Personally, I don’t think that we’re a completely irrelevant by-product (for various reasons), but I see nothing against the hypothesis that we’re more of a pleasant side-effect than the actual pinnacle of creation. The actual pinnacle of creation might very well be something that will be created by a Friendly AI—or even by an Unfriendly AI—vast aeons in the future.
Given the length of time it takes for galaxies to collide, I’d guess that the intelligent life probably develops a technological civilisation, recognises their danger, and still has a few million years to take steps to protect themselves. Evacuation is probably a feasible strategy, though probably not the best strategy, in that sort of timeframe.
I agree that this is a reasonable conclusion to make once you assume the existence of a certain kind of deity.