The “problem” part is that the utility for being predicted NOT to two-box is different from the utility for two-boxing. If the decision cannot influence the already-locked-in prediction (which is the default intuition behind CDT), it’s simple to correctly two-box and take your 1.001 million. If the decision is invisibly constrained to match the prediction, then it’s simple to one-box and take your 1m. Both are maximum available outcomes, in different decision-causality situations.
But conditional on making each decision, you can update your distribution for Omega’s prediction and calculate your EV accordingly. I guess that’s basically EDT though.
The “problem” part is that the utility for being predicted NOT to two-box is different from the utility for two-boxing. If the decision cannot influence the already-locked-in prediction (which is the default intuition behind CDT), it’s simple to correctly two-box and take your 1.001 million. If the decision is invisibly constrained to match the prediction, then it’s simple to one-box and take your 1m. Both are maximum available outcomes, in different decision-causality situations.
But conditional on making each decision, you can update your distribution for Omega’s prediction and calculate your EV accordingly. I guess that’s basically EDT though.