It’s crucial to distinguish forecasting from exploratory engineering when evaluating arguments, since desiderata are starkly different. Some forecasts are hard to explain and impossible to break down into arguments that are jointly convincing to anyone with even a slightly different worldview. Exploratory engineering sketches are self-contained arguments that are easy to explain to an appropriate audience, but often rest on assumptions that almost nobody expects to obtain in reality. (And yet when considered altogether, they are the education to forecasting’s educated guessing.)
It’s crucial to distinguish forecasting from exploratory engineering when evaluating arguments, since desiderata are starkly different. Some forecasts are hard to explain and impossible to break down into arguments that are jointly convincing to anyone with even a slightly different worldview. Exploratory engineering sketches are self-contained arguments that are easy to explain to an appropriate audience, but often rest on assumptions that almost nobody expects to obtain in reality. (And yet when considered altogether, they are the education to forecasting’s educated guessing.)
Yes, this is a great example of Exploratory engineering