soft asi, semi-general planners that can trounce humans at very difficult and complex well defined tasks, this year or next [...] soft ASI might slow things down rather than speed things up if safety goes well
I think most people expressing predictions about IOI and IMO expect some self-play tricks with proof generation for verification of formal statements, which don’t translate into AGI in a singularity-relevant sense, the same as MCTS for Go and chess doesn’t. So while I agree that IOI and IMO bets should be AGI-equivalent (if I’m reading the “slow things down” point correctly), I think the prediction aggregators don’t have that claim baked in for such questions.
I think most people expressing predictions about IOI and IMO expect some self-play tricks with proof generation for verification of formal statements, which don’t translate into AGI in a singularity-relevant sense, the same as MCTS for Go and chess doesn’t. So while I agree that IOI and IMO bets should be AGI-equivalent (if I’m reading the “slow things down” point correctly), I think the prediction aggregators don’t have that claim baked in for such questions.