Nitpick: I don’t think it’s helpful to describe some of the arguments as “inside view” and others as “outside view” here. This can mislead people into thinking that e.g. the arguments you label “outside view” should be treated differently from those you label “inside view,” that e.g. people who aren’t experts should put more weight on the “outside view” arguments, etc., and that this is justified by Tetlock’s experiments and the surrounding literature.
Whereas in fact Tetlock’s experiments etc. were about a different sort of thing than the kinds of arguments you are considering here. Besides, the terms “inside view” and “outside view” mean so many different things today that they basically just tell the audience how you feel about an argument and how you want the audience to feel about it. Taboo outside view! I would suggest you replace instances of “inside-viewy” with “model-based” or “technical,” or “implausible assumptions” and replace instances of “outside-viewy” with “Sanity check” or “implausible predictions.”
Nice post! I basically agree with you here. Trying to forecast AI using GDP data is like trying to forecast fossil fuel production by looking at global mean temperature data. But it’s useful for rebutting people who think that transformative AI, AGI, etc. is crazy/unprecedented/low-prior.
Nitpick: I don’t think it’s helpful to describe some of the arguments as “inside view” and others as “outside view” here. This can mislead people into thinking that e.g. the arguments you label “outside view” should be treated differently from those you label “inside view,” that e.g. people who aren’t experts should put more weight on the “outside view” arguments, etc., and that this is justified by Tetlock’s experiments and the surrounding literature.
Whereas in fact Tetlock’s experiments etc. were about a different sort of thing than the kinds of arguments you are considering here. Besides, the terms “inside view” and “outside view” mean so many different things today that they basically just tell the audience how you feel about an argument and how you want the audience to feel about it. Taboo outside view! I would suggest you replace instances of “inside-viewy” with “model-based” or “technical,” or “implausible assumptions” and replace instances of “outside-viewy” with “Sanity check” or “implausible predictions.”