Is the context on “reliable prediction and ELK via empirical route” just “read the existing ELK literature and actually follow it” or is it stuff that’s not written down? I assume you’ve omitted it to save time, and so no worries if the latter.
EDIT: I was slightly tempted to think of this also as ‘Ryan’s ranking of live agendas that aren’t control’, but I’m not sure if ‘what you expect to work conditional on delegating to AIs’ is similar to ‘what you expect to work if humans are doing most of it?’ (my guess is the lists would look similar, but with notable exceptions, eg humans pursuing GOFAI feels less viable than ML agents pursuing GOFAI)
This isn’t really my ranking of live agendas that aren’t control. For instance, various things focused on demonstrating/measuring risks don’t appear on this list but seem pretty good. And, a bunch of these look much more compelling when you have a ton of AI labor. Also, these aren’t really agendas more like targets. It is related to my ranking on non-control agendas though.
Is the context on “reliable prediction and ELK via empirical route” just “read the existing ELK literature and actually follow it” or is it stuff that’s not written down? I assume you’ve omitted it to save time, and so no worries if the latter.
EDIT: I was slightly tempted to think of this also as ‘Ryan’s ranking of live agendas that aren’t control’, but I’m not sure if ‘what you expect to work conditional on delegating to AIs’ is similar to ‘what you expect to work if humans are doing most of it?’ (my guess is the lists would look similar, but with notable exceptions, eg humans pursuing GOFAI feels less viable than ML agents pursuing GOFAI)
Stuff that’s not written down, sorry.
This isn’t really my ranking of live agendas that aren’t control. For instance, various things focused on demonstrating/measuring risks don’t appear on this list but seem pretty good. And, a bunch of these look much more compelling when you have a ton of AI labor. Also, these aren’t really agendas more like targets. It is related to my ranking on non-control agendas though.