Suppose there is another betting rule in the same setting:
Every person in the experiment is proposed to guess whether the coin has landed Heads or Tails. If they guessed correctly, they personally get 10 dollars, otherwise they personally lose 10 dollars.
Now you may notice that if you see green, the correct behaviour is to pick this personal bet and refuse the collective bet, thus simultaneiusly update and not update. Which may appear paradoxical, unless you understand that we are talking about different probabilities.
Suppose there is another betting rule in the same setting:
Now you may notice that if you see green, the correct behaviour is to pick this personal bet and refuse the collective bet, thus simultaneiusly update and not update. Which may appear paradoxical, unless you understand that we are talking about different probabilities.