I that this probability is small, but I am claiming it could be 1 in a trillion small, not 1 in 10^50 small.
How do you intend to test 10^30 protiens for self replication ability? The best we can do is to mix up a vat of random protiens, and leave it in suitable conditions to see if something replicates. Then sample the vat to see if its full of self replicators. Our vat has less mass, and exists for less time, than the surface of prebiotic earth. (Assuming near present levels of resources, some K3 civ might well try planetary scale biology experiments) So there is a range of probabilities where we won’t see abiogenisis in a vat, but it is likely to happen on a planet.
We can make a test on computer viruses. What is the probability that a random code will be self-replicating program? 10^50 probability is not that extraordinary—it is just a probability of around 150 bits of code being on right places.
I that this probability is small, but I am claiming it could be 1 in a trillion small, not 1 in 10^50 small.
How do you intend to test 10^30 protiens for self replication ability? The best we can do is to mix up a vat of random protiens, and leave it in suitable conditions to see if something replicates. Then sample the vat to see if its full of self replicators. Our vat has less mass, and exists for less time, than the surface of prebiotic earth. (Assuming near present levels of resources, some K3 civ might well try planetary scale biology experiments) So there is a range of probabilities where we won’t see abiogenisis in a vat, but it is likely to happen on a planet.
We can make a test on computer viruses. What is the probability that a random code will be self-replicating program? 10^50 probability is not that extraordinary—it is just a probability of around 150 bits of code being on right places.