Yes, there are lesser goals that I could hit with 90% probability. Note that in that comment, I was saying that 2% would make the project attractive, rather than saying I put our chances of success at 2%. And also that the bar there was set very high—getting a clear attributable major policy win. Which then got someone willing to take the YES side at 5% (Ross).
Yes, there are lesser goals that I could hit with 90% probability. Note that in that comment, I was saying that 2% would make the project attractive, rather than saying I put our chances of success at 2%. And also that the bar there was set very high—getting a clear attributable major policy win. Which then got someone willing to take the YES side at 5% (Ross).