I’m seriously surprised to see a response to this advance that is not at least curious interest at an obviously related physics advance.
There are two different things going on here; one of them is that nanotechnology has potential and is interesting, and the other is estimating if/when the next Singularity will occur.
The second is done best by taking the outside view. An estimate that the Singularity will happen in 2100 assumes there will be many technological improvements between then and now- both big and small- and so doesn’t depend on the details- that we fixed the heating problem now and the parallelism problem ten years from now, or did them in the reverse order.
The first is interesting, but should be separated from the second.
“Taking the outside view means using an estimate based on a class of roughly similar previous cases”
so the singularity by far is something after which we cannot predict how things are, but we’re going to look at roughly similar cases for that?
I’m also an insider in this in the sense that I’ve been a professional software engineer for 16 years, dropped out of a phd program after passing qualification exam with a masters in compsci and eng, so yes, I am trying to imagine possible outcomes and look at trajectories and I hope other people with training on this board are doing the same.
so the singularity by far is something after which we cannot predict how things are, but we’re going to look at roughly similar cases for that?
The comparisons people generally make are to agriculture and industrialization.
I’m also an insider in this in the sense that I’ve been a professional software engineer for 16 years
Okay. Part of my academic background is physics, including nanoscale physics- but if anything, being half-educated about it makes me reluctant to speculate.
For example, there’s a technology under development which would use nanotubes and van der Waals forces (if I remember correctly) to do binary memory on a scale that’s a massive jump from what we have now- I think the claim was they could store a petabyte in the volume of a dime. If that works, that’ll be huge- you could significantly change computer architecture with the ability to store abundant memory on the same chip as the CPU, for example. But I’m reluctant to bet that it’ll work until it works.
So if you have a background in nanotech and I have compsci, it seems like speculation could generate ideas.
I think that as a community interested in safety, it’s important we keep informed about the advancement trajectory. Understanding limitations and capabilities of fundamental science advancements also provides intelligence on companies to watch for, tech that is likely available soon and so forth.
so, why not speculate? It’s almost free to scan an idea for value.
There are two different things going on here; one of them is that nanotechnology has potential and is interesting, and the other is estimating if/when the next Singularity will occur.
The second is done best by taking the outside view. An estimate that the Singularity will happen in 2100 assumes there will be many technological improvements between then and now- both big and small- and so doesn’t depend on the details- that we fixed the heating problem now and the parallelism problem ten years from now, or did them in the reverse order.
The first is interesting, but should be separated from the second.
Ouch
“Taking the outside view means using an estimate based on a class of roughly similar previous cases”
so the singularity by far is something after which we cannot predict how things are, but we’re going to look at roughly similar cases for that?
I’m also an insider in this in the sense that I’ve been a professional software engineer for 16 years, dropped out of a phd program after passing qualification exam with a masters in compsci and eng, so yes, I am trying to imagine possible outcomes and look at trajectories and I hope other people with training on this board are doing the same.
The comparisons people generally make are to agriculture and industrialization.
Okay. Part of my academic background is physics, including nanoscale physics- but if anything, being half-educated about it makes me reluctant to speculate.
For example, there’s a technology under development which would use nanotubes and van der Waals forces (if I remember correctly) to do binary memory on a scale that’s a massive jump from what we have now- I think the claim was they could store a petabyte in the volume of a dime. If that works, that’ll be huge- you could significantly change computer architecture with the ability to store abundant memory on the same chip as the CPU, for example. But I’m reluctant to bet that it’ll work until it works.
So if you have a background in nanotech and I have compsci, it seems like speculation could generate ideas.
I think that as a community interested in safety, it’s important we keep informed about the advancement trajectory. Understanding limitations and capabilities of fundamental science advancements also provides intelligence on companies to watch for, tech that is likely available soon and so forth.
so, why not speculate? It’s almost free to scan an idea for value.