I think the plan you propose cannot work in any meaningful way. Some of the steps are uncertain, and some depends on the capacity of the given AGI. They can still be argued for convincingly.
However, the current industrial production is very far from being sufficiently automated to allow the AGI to do anything other than shut off when the power runs out after step 14.
To me, some actual possibilities are:
political “enslavement” (taking many possible forms) which would make humans work for the AGI for an arbitrary long period of time (10 years, 100 years, 100 000 years) before disassembly
incredible intelligence explosion that would allow the AGI to reach nanobot tech / other kind of very futuristic / barely imaginable tech and automate physical world actions immediately
The only scenario that leads to short term doom is 2. I do not believe that an AGI could reach such level of technological advancement without experimenting directly (although I do believe that it could setup a research program leading to breakthroughs orders of magnitude more efficiently than humans)
However, the current industrial production is very far from being sufficiently automated to allow the AGI to do anything other than shut off when the power runs out after step 14.
Maybe. I don’t really know. Things I would say:
There are lots of manufacturing facilities, which are to some degree automated. If the humans are gone and they haven’t burned down the facilities, then the AGI can send in weak manual-manipulation robots to make use of what’s there.
There would probably also be lots of partly-manufactured machines (including cars), where most of the hardest steps are already done—maybe all that’s left is screwing in parts or something, meant to be done by human factory workers that aren’t particularly strong.
I imagine all the AGI has to do is assemble one strong, highly dexterous robot, which it can then use to make more and bootstrap its industrial capabilities.
Given that the AGI can hack roughly everything, it would know a great deal about the location and capabilities of manufacturing facilities and robots and the components they assembled. If there is a plan that can be made along the above lines, it would know very well how to do it and how feasible it was.
Regarding power, the AGI just needs enough to run the above bootstrapping. Even if we assume all centralized power plants are destroyed… Once most people are dead, the AGI can forage in the city for gas generators; use the gas that’s already in cars, and the charge that’s left in the electric cars; solar panels on people’s roofs; private battery installations like Tesla Powerwalls; and so on. (Also, if it was trying this in lots of cities at once, it’s very unlikely that all centralized power would be offline in all cities.) And its foraging abilities will improve as it makes stronger, more dexterous robots, which eventually would be able to repair the power grid or construct a new one.
I think the plan you propose cannot work in any meaningful way. Some of the steps are uncertain, and some depends on the capacity of the given AGI. They can still be argued for convincingly.
However, the current industrial production is very far from being sufficiently automated to allow the AGI to do anything other than shut off when the power runs out after step 14.
To me, some actual possibilities are:
political “enslavement” (taking many possible forms) which would make humans work for the AGI for an arbitrary long period of time (10 years, 100 years, 100 000 years) before disassembly
incredible intelligence explosion that would allow the AGI to reach nanobot tech / other kind of very futuristic / barely imaginable tech and automate physical world actions immediately
The only scenario that leads to short term doom is 2. I do not believe that an AGI could reach such level of technological advancement without experimenting directly (although I do believe that it could setup a research program leading to breakthroughs orders of magnitude more efficiently than humans)
Maybe. I don’t really know. Things I would say:
There are lots of manufacturing facilities, which are to some degree automated. If the humans are gone and they haven’t burned down the facilities, then the AGI can send in weak manual-manipulation robots to make use of what’s there.
There would probably also be lots of partly-manufactured machines (including cars), where most of the hardest steps are already done—maybe all that’s left is screwing in parts or something, meant to be done by human factory workers that aren’t particularly strong.
I imagine all the AGI has to do is assemble one strong, highly dexterous robot, which it can then use to make more and bootstrap its industrial capabilities.
Given that the AGI can hack roughly everything, it would know a great deal about the location and capabilities of manufacturing facilities and robots and the components they assembled. If there is a plan that can be made along the above lines, it would know very well how to do it and how feasible it was.
Regarding power, the AGI just needs enough to run the above bootstrapping. Even if we assume all centralized power plants are destroyed… Once most people are dead, the AGI can forage in the city for gas generators; use the gas that’s already in cars, and the charge that’s left in the electric cars; solar panels on people’s roofs; private battery installations like Tesla Powerwalls; and so on. (Also, if it was trying this in lots of cities at once, it’s very unlikely that all centralized power would be offline in all cities.) And its foraging abilities will improve as it makes stronger, more dexterous robots, which eventually would be able to repair the power grid or construct a new one.