I basically agree with your overall comment, but I’d like to push back in one spot:
If your model of reality has the power to make these sweeping claims with high confidence
From my understanding, for at least Nate Soares, he claims his internal case for >80% doom is disjunctive and doesn’t route all through 1, 2, 3, and 4.
I don’t really know exactly what the disjuncts are, so this doesn’t really help and I overall agree that MIRI does make “sweeping claims with high confidence”.
I basically agree with your overall comment, but I’d like to push back in one spot:
From my understanding, for at least Nate Soares, he claims his internal case for >80% doom is disjunctive and doesn’t route all through 1, 2, 3, and 4.
I don’t really know exactly what the disjuncts are, so this doesn’t really help and I overall agree that MIRI does make “sweeping claims with high confidence”.