You’ve made detailed predictions about what you expect in the next several years, on numerous occasions, and made several good-faith attempts to elucidate your models of AI concretely. There are many ways we disagree, and many ways I could characterize your views, but “unfalsifiable” is not a label I would tend to use for your opinions on AI. I do not mentally lump you together with MIRI in any strong sense.
OK, glad to hear. And thank you. :) Well, you’ll be interested to know that I think of my views on AGI as being similar to MIRI’s, just less extreme in various dimensions. For example I don’t think literally killing everyone is the most likely outcome, but I think it’s a very plausible outcome. I also don’t expect the ‘sharp left turn’ to be particularly sharp, such that I don’t think it’s a particularly useful concept. I also think I’ve learned a lot from engaging with MIRI and while I have plenty of criticisms of them (e.g. I think some of them are arrogant and perhaps even dogmatic) I think they have been more epistemically virtuous than the average participant in the AGI risk conversation, even the average ‘serious’ or ‘elite’ participant.
You’ve made detailed predictions about what you expect in the next several years, on numerous occasions, and made several good-faith attempts to elucidate your models of AI concretely. There are many ways we disagree, and many ways I could characterize your views, but “unfalsifiable” is not a label I would tend to use for your opinions on AI. I do not mentally lump you together with MIRI in any strong sense.
OK, glad to hear. And thank you. :) Well, you’ll be interested to know that I think of my views on AGI as being similar to MIRI’s, just less extreme in various dimensions. For example I don’t think literally killing everyone is the most likely outcome, but I think it’s a very plausible outcome. I also don’t expect the ‘sharp left turn’ to be particularly sharp, such that I don’t think it’s a particularly useful concept. I also think I’ve learned a lot from engaging with MIRI and while I have plenty of criticisms of them (e.g. I think some of them are arrogant and perhaps even dogmatic) I think they have been more epistemically virtuous than the average participant in the AGI risk conversation, even the average ‘serious’ or ‘elite’ participant.