Outside view of your 1 2, 3 and 4: most people end up in trajectory number 4, so thinking this is the least likely scenario needs some really good evidence.
In particular let’s look at 1: How do you plan on an event that has a reasonable probability of not happening in your lifetime, and about which you know relatively nothing (if we could well predict what will happen on the other side, it won’t be anything like a singularity).
Who is to say that a singularity results in happiness for everyone—even for a positive one? From the standpoint of someone sitting in the 18th century, flipping into life today would be like a singularity—even poor people have luxuries not dreamed of 200 years ago. That said, it’s a lot more pleasant to have money or marketable skills than not, even in the cushy rich world. Try being actually poor in the US to see what it’s like. See how well you can live on $800/month (a typical very small social security benefit) with no savings and no family support.
For 3: from your perspective right now, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to stop working. Past a certain relatively young age, however, anyone who is not good at selling themselves, developing a network, or established as a well known expert in their field will find themselves at a huge disadvantage in the job market, and may no longer be able to get interesting jobs for good pay. At that point, someone who followed the moustache plan in their 20s and 30s doesn’t really care—they can try as many new startups as they want and give the finger to the “norma”l job market, never worrying about whether they will have enough to eat and live in a comfortable home.
If you have never saved any money, you may end up forced into plan 4 in your 40s often at jobs that are uninteresting and do not pay very well. I’ve seen it happen to a lot of smart people.
Do I think it’s worth trying startups young? Yes. And realistically a few failures in a row will probably sap your will to start a new one in any case, so there isn’t that much risk of getting past easily hirable age, so I recommend looking to do it early on.
That said, whenever you are making good money, some long term savings is a good idea—money gives you future flexibility, and the hedonic hit you take to save 15-20% of your money when you are making a solid middle class income is barely noticeable.
Outside view of your 1 2, 3 and 4: most people end up in trajectory number 4
I’m not sure how to word this well, but “most people” haven’t lived in the year 2080. Because of a) the possibility of a singularity and b) the law of accelerating returns, the “most people” that you refer to doesn’t seem like an appropriate reference class to me.
In particular let’s look at 1
I think you’re downplaying the chances that a singularity does happen in my lifetime. 90% of experts seem to think it will.
Interesting point abut 200 years ago though. I’m having a hard time imagining the standard of living for the poor in that time period being insufficient for me, but I’ve noted this as something to examine further.
I think you’re downplaying the chances that a singularity does happen in my lifetime. 90% of experts seem to think it will.
The experts are biased.
Consider two competent AI researchers, Alice and Bob. They both investigate the possibility of a singularity. Alice comes to the conclusion that it might happen in a few centuries or never. Bob comes to the conclusion that it will be possible in a few decades. What happens next?
Alice isn’t interested in the singularity any more and goes off to work at, I don’t now, image recognition. Bob as a consequence of his views still is interested in the singularity and continues to work on it. At this point Alice is not an “expert” on singularity, but Bob is. A survey would ask for Bob’s opinion but will not ask Alice what she thinks.
I think you’re downplaying the chances that a singularity does happen in my lifetime. 90% of experts seem to think it will.
I don’t. (Edit: I meant this as “I don’t think I am downplaying the chances”, not “I don’t think the singularity will happen”)
It’s true that I disagree with your experts here, and Lumifer speaks to some of my reasons. I even disagree with the LW consensus which is much more conservative than the one you quote.
That said, even taking your predictions for granted, there are still two huge concerns with the singularity retirement plan:
Even given that it will occur in your/my lifetime, how do you know what it will look like and that it will lead to a retirement you are happy with even if you have no capital?
If there is even a 5-10% chance that it doesn’t happen, or doesn’t provide what you want—that is a fail when I am doing a retirement plan for most of my clients. I’m generally aiming for a 0+epsilon or at least <1% chance of failure if the client is able to follow the plan[*]. The only clients where building in a 10% chance of bust is ok are those who are in a real pickle, and there is no reasonable strategy to do better. Those clients’ plans have to include downward adjustment of their goals if the initial trajectory is in or too close to the failure window.
[*] obviously most of the true failure chance happens when the client is unable to follow the plan at some point. Financially, some of that can be insured against (health and disability, life for dependent survivors) and some can’t.
Outside view of your 1 2, 3 and 4: most people end up in trajectory number 4, so thinking this is the least likely scenario needs some really good evidence.
In particular let’s look at 1: How do you plan on an event that has a reasonable probability of not happening in your lifetime, and about which you know relatively nothing (if we could well predict what will happen on the other side, it won’t be anything like a singularity).
Who is to say that a singularity results in happiness for everyone—even for a positive one? From the standpoint of someone sitting in the 18th century, flipping into life today would be like a singularity—even poor people have luxuries not dreamed of 200 years ago. That said, it’s a lot more pleasant to have money or marketable skills than not, even in the cushy rich world. Try being actually poor in the US to see what it’s like. See how well you can live on $800/month (a typical very small social security benefit) with no savings and no family support.
For 3: from your perspective right now, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to stop working. Past a certain relatively young age, however, anyone who is not good at selling themselves, developing a network, or established as a well known expert in their field will find themselves at a huge disadvantage in the job market, and may no longer be able to get interesting jobs for good pay. At that point, someone who followed the moustache plan in their 20s and 30s doesn’t really care—they can try as many new startups as they want and give the finger to the “norma”l job market, never worrying about whether they will have enough to eat and live in a comfortable home.
If you have never saved any money, you may end up forced into plan 4 in your 40s often at jobs that are uninteresting and do not pay very well. I’ve seen it happen to a lot of smart people.
Do I think it’s worth trying startups young? Yes. And realistically a few failures in a row will probably sap your will to start a new one in any case, so there isn’t that much risk of getting past easily hirable age, so I recommend looking to do it early on.
That said, whenever you are making good money, some long term savings is a good idea—money gives you future flexibility, and the hedonic hit you take to save 15-20% of your money when you are making a solid middle class income is barely noticeable.
I’m not sure how to word this well, but “most people” haven’t lived in the year 2080. Because of a) the possibility of a singularity and b) the law of accelerating returns, the “most people” that you refer to doesn’t seem like an appropriate reference class to me.
I think you’re downplaying the chances that a singularity does happen in my lifetime. 90% of experts seem to think it will.
Interesting point abut 200 years ago though. I’m having a hard time imagining the standard of living for the poor in that time period being insufficient for me, but I’ve noted this as something to examine further.
The experts are biased.
Consider two competent AI researchers, Alice and Bob. They both investigate the possibility of a singularity. Alice comes to the conclusion that it might happen in a few centuries or never. Bob comes to the conclusion that it will be possible in a few decades. What happens next?
Alice isn’t interested in the singularity any more and goes off to work at, I don’t now, image recognition. Bob as a consequence of his views still is interested in the singularity and continues to work on it. At this point Alice is not an “expert” on singularity, but Bob is. A survey would ask for Bob’s opinion but will not ask Alice what she thinks.
I don’t. (Edit: I meant this as “I don’t think I am downplaying the chances”, not “I don’t think the singularity will happen”)
It’s true that I disagree with your experts here, and Lumifer speaks to some of my reasons. I even disagree with the LW consensus which is much more conservative than the one you quote.
That said, even taking your predictions for granted, there are still two huge concerns with the singularity retirement plan:
Even given that it will occur in your/my lifetime, how do you know what it will look like and that it will lead to a retirement you are happy with even if you have no capital?
If there is even a 5-10% chance that it doesn’t happen, or doesn’t provide what you want—that is a fail when I am doing a retirement plan for most of my clients. I’m generally aiming for a 0+epsilon or at least <1% chance of failure if the client is able to follow the plan[*]. The only clients where building in a 10% chance of bust is ok are those who are in a real pickle, and there is no reasonable strategy to do better. Those clients’ plans have to include downward adjustment of their goals if the initial trajectory is in or too close to the failure window.
[*] obviously most of the true failure chance happens when the client is unable to follow the plan at some point. Financially, some of that can be insured against (health and disability, life for dependent survivors) and some can’t.