If you trust both them and Metaculus, then you ought to update downwards on your estimate of the PRC’s strategic ability.
I note that the PRC doesn’t have a single “strategic ability” in terms of war. They can be better or worse at choosing which wars to fight, and this seems likely to have little influence on how good they are at winning such wars or scaling weaponry.
Eg in the US often “which war” is much more political than “exactly what strategy should we use to win this war” is much more political than “how much fuel should our jets be able to carry”, since more people can talk & speculate about the higher level questions. China’s politics are much more closed than the US’s, but you can bet similar dynamics are at play.
I should have been more clear. With “strategic ability”, I was thinking about the kind of capabilities that let a government recognize which wars have good prospects, and to not initiate unfavorable wars despite ideological commitments.
I note that the PRC doesn’t have a single “strategic ability” in terms of war. They can be better or worse at choosing which wars to fight, and this seems likely to have little influence on how good they are at winning such wars or scaling weaponry.
Eg in the US often “which war” is much more political than “exactly what strategy should we use to win this war” is much more political than “how much fuel should our jets be able to carry”, since more people can talk & speculate about the higher level questions. China’s politics are much more closed than the US’s, but you can bet similar dynamics are at play.
I should have been more clear. With “strategic ability”, I was thinking about the kind of capabilities that let a government recognize which wars have good prospects, and to not initiate unfavorable wars despite ideological commitments.