I think a lot will depend on HOW it ends and the framing that takes hold in the public consciousness.
There will be quite a bit of coordination in that governments will modify or relax the official sanctions. And a lot of the same coordination among individual actors we saw in imposing the limits, in media and corporate behavior.
But I think it’s a feature, not a bug, that we can’t tell Putin what the actual tests are that would let the sanctions go away completely. If it were planned and coordinated, Russia would do the minimum to get the sanctions lifted. To the extent that it’s cultural and diffuse, they have to figure out what apologies, reparations, and changes in behavior will be sufficient to get McDonalds to re-open, and how that differs from getting re-admitted to sporting events.
I think you’re right that there’s no clear victory possible—this war and the sanctions have done incredible damage, both directly in Ukraine, and indirectly in disruption of trade and markets. That damage can never be undone—it’s a permanent loss in value. The wind-down of conflict will be as complex as the ramp-up was, and will be a new equilibrium for how willing people are to trade with Russia, based on their perceived willingness to do similar crimes in the future.
Agreed—how the conflict ends is super important. I was mostly thinking about it ending in Ukraine’s (relative) favor, whatever that looks like, but were Russia/Putin to “win” (not just propaganda win, but actually win), considerations would be markedly different.
I didn’t think of the decentralized nature of the punishments on Russia as a feature instead of a bug—it’s a good frame I’ll have to mull over.
I will say that if there was some clear condition for all the sanctions and such to end (withdraw from Ukraine entirely tomorrow, or something else I haven’t thought of), would that change Putin’s calculus or Russian opinion? I don’t know.
Is the lack of knowledge of the actual tests and its effect on Putin’s decisions worth the possible additional damage done during a complex wind-down (as opposed to a single, organized wind-down)?
I think a lot will depend on HOW it ends and the framing that takes hold in the public consciousness.
There will be quite a bit of coordination in that governments will modify or relax the official sanctions. And a lot of the same coordination among individual actors we saw in imposing the limits, in media and corporate behavior.
But I think it’s a feature, not a bug, that we can’t tell Putin what the actual tests are that would let the sanctions go away completely. If it were planned and coordinated, Russia would do the minimum to get the sanctions lifted. To the extent that it’s cultural and diffuse, they have to figure out what apologies, reparations, and changes in behavior will be sufficient to get McDonalds to re-open, and how that differs from getting re-admitted to sporting events.
I think you’re right that there’s no clear victory possible—this war and the sanctions have done incredible damage, both directly in Ukraine, and indirectly in disruption of trade and markets. That damage can never be undone—it’s a permanent loss in value. The wind-down of conflict will be as complex as the ramp-up was, and will be a new equilibrium for how willing people are to trade with Russia, based on their perceived willingness to do similar crimes in the future.
Agreed—how the conflict ends is super important. I was mostly thinking about it ending in Ukraine’s (relative) favor, whatever that looks like, but were Russia/Putin to “win” (not just propaganda win, but actually win), considerations would be markedly different.
I didn’t think of the decentralized nature of the punishments on Russia as a feature instead of a bug—it’s a good frame I’ll have to mull over.
I will say that if there was some clear condition for all the sanctions and such to end (withdraw from Ukraine entirely tomorrow, or something else I haven’t thought of), would that change Putin’s calculus or Russian opinion? I don’t know.
Is the lack of knowledge of the actual tests and its effect on Putin’s decisions worth the possible additional damage done during a complex wind-down (as opposed to a single, organized wind-down)?
No idea.