Agreed—how the conflict ends is super important. I was mostly thinking about it ending in Ukraine’s (relative) favor, whatever that looks like, but were Russia/Putin to “win” (not just propaganda win, but actually win), considerations would be markedly different.
I didn’t think of the decentralized nature of the punishments on Russia as a feature instead of a bug—it’s a good frame I’ll have to mull over.
I will say that if there was some clear condition for all the sanctions and such to end (withdraw from Ukraine entirely tomorrow, or something else I haven’t thought of), would that change Putin’s calculus or Russian opinion? I don’t know.
Is the lack of knowledge of the actual tests and its effect on Putin’s decisions worth the possible additional damage done during a complex wind-down (as opposed to a single, organized wind-down)?
Agreed—how the conflict ends is super important. I was mostly thinking about it ending in Ukraine’s (relative) favor, whatever that looks like, but were Russia/Putin to “win” (not just propaganda win, but actually win), considerations would be markedly different.
I didn’t think of the decentralized nature of the punishments on Russia as a feature instead of a bug—it’s a good frame I’ll have to mull over.
I will say that if there was some clear condition for all the sanctions and such to end (withdraw from Ukraine entirely tomorrow, or something else I haven’t thought of), would that change Putin’s calculus or Russian opinion? I don’t know.
Is the lack of knowledge of the actual tests and its effect on Putin’s decisions worth the possible additional damage done during a complex wind-down (as opposed to a single, organized wind-down)?
No idea.