Interesting! You should definitely think more about this and write it up sometime, either you’ll change your mind about timelines till superintelligence or you’ll have found an interesting novel argument that may change other people’s minds (such as mine).
I think I’m also learning that people are way more interested in this detail than I expected!
I debated changing it to “203X” when posting to avoid this becoming the focus of the discussion but figured, “eh, keep it as I actually wrote it in the workshop” for good epistemic hygiene.
Interesting! You should definitely think more about this and write it up sometime, either you’ll change your mind about timelines till superintelligence or you’ll have found an interesting novel argument that may change other people’s minds (such as mine).
I think I’m also learning that people are way more interested in this detail than I expected!
I debated changing it to “203X” when posting to avoid this becoming the focus of the discussion but figured, “eh, keep it as I actually wrote it in the workshop” for good epistemic hygiene.