Yes. If I relied on losing a bet and someone knew that, them offering me to bet (and therefore lose) would make me wary something would unpredictably go right, I’d win, and my reliance on me losing the bet would be thwarted.
If I meet a random person who offers to give me $100 now and claims that later, if it’s not proven that they are the Lord of the Matrix, I don’t have to pay them $15,000, most of my probability mass located in “this will end badly” won’t be located in “they are the Lord of the Matrix.” I don’t have the same set of worries here, but the worry remains.
does too-hard-to-win bets make you wary of something unpredictably going right?
Yes. If I relied on losing a bet and someone knew that, them offering me to bet (and therefore lose) would make me wary something would unpredictably go right, I’d win, and my reliance on me losing the bet would be thwarted.
If I meet a random person who offers to give me $100 now and claims that later, if it’s not proven that they are the Lord of the Matrix, I don’t have to pay them $15,000, most of my probability mass located in “this will end badly” won’t be located in “they are the Lord of the Matrix.” I don’t have the same set of worries here, but the worry remains.