Parts of it do match (free money, to be repaid years from now), parts don’t (large liability years from now if the OP is correct, preference for crypto as irrevocable money transfer, desire for public agreement and public adjudication). The trust level implied by “accepting party has final say” and “hold all the money for years” is much higher than normal, which often indicates scam. The fact that I don’t see the scam (despite knowing a bit about common ones) is some evidence that it’s not a scam. The non-specificity of terms (which payment method(s) to use, what odds they’ll take, what min/max amount to consider) could go either way.
If OP were trolling for suckers or running an overpay/refund/revoke scam, they’d scale out rather than picking just one target—offer a bet to all takers, in hopes that multiple will be duped. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
Note that it can fail to be real without being a scam. An over-simple offer that is regretted before payment is irrevocable means no bet occurs, but that’s not scammy, it’s just over-aggressive signaling in wanting to make a bet and then avoiding the pain of actually making the payment. This is where I put most of my probability weight on failure (though some to scam, of course).
Parts of it do match (free money, to be repaid years from now), parts don’t (large liability years from now if the OP is correct, preference for crypto as irrevocable money transfer, desire for public agreement and public adjudication). The trust level implied by “accepting party has final say” and “hold all the money for years” is much higher than normal, which often indicates scam. The fact that I don’t see the scam (despite knowing a bit about common ones) is some evidence that it’s not a scam. The non-specificity of terms (which payment method(s) to use, what odds they’ll take, what min/max amount to consider) could go either way.
If OP were trolling for suckers or running an overpay/refund/revoke scam, they’d scale out rather than picking just one target—offer a bet to all takers, in hopes that multiple will be duped. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
Note that it can fail to be real without being a scam. An over-simple offer that is regretted before payment is irrevocable means no bet occurs, but that’s not scammy, it’s just over-aggressive signaling in wanting to make a bet and then avoiding the pain of actually making the payment. This is where I put most of my probability weight on failure (though some to scam, of course).