Parts of it do match (free money, to be repaid years from now), parts don’t (large liability years from now if the OP is correct, preference for crypto as irrevocable money transfer, desire for public agreement and public adjudication). The trust level implied by “accepting party has final say” and “hold all the money for years” is much higher than normal, which often indicates scam. The fact that I don’t see the scam (despite knowing a bit about common ones) is some evidence that it’s not a scam. The non-specificity of terms (which payment method(s) to use, what odds they’ll take, what min/max amount to consider) could go either way.
If OP were trolling for suckers or running an overpay/refund/revoke scam, they’d scale out rather than picking just one target—offer a bet to all takers, in hopes that multiple will be duped. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
Note that it can fail to be real without being a scam. An over-simple offer that is regretted before payment is irrevocable means no bet occurs, but that’s not scammy, it’s just over-aggressive signaling in wanting to make a bet and then avoiding the pain of actually making the payment. This is where I put most of my probability weight on failure (though some to scam, of course).
Doesn’t smell like it to me, and paying up front makes scamming harder. Are you thinking “he’s scouting for marks” or “the cost is mostly in dispute headaches” or “people who join schemes this weird end up in a ditch”?
There are free money scams where someone transfers money from stolen credit cards.
One way might be to agree to pay $1000 dollar and then “accidentally” transfer $2000 (from a stolen credit card) and then ask the person to transfer $1000 dollar back to another bank account.
I think RatsWrongAboutUAP did offer to pay in crypto which removes the option for these kinds of frauds. Otherwise, just avoiding transferring any money even if someone overpays you is also a good heuristic.
Scamming is adversarial, so it’s normal for a scam to appear like it’s safe. But I’m not claiming my pattern match is superior to yours.
A scam could include getting financial information to get money, or a voice print for impersonation. Maybe the scammer has insider information about UFOs. Maybe it’s entrapment for breaking gambling laws. Maybe a journalist is writing a story about how evil rationalists exploit innocent people with fringe beliefs for money.
The scam probability doesn’t have to be large for it to dwarf the apparent benefits.
This pattern matches to anonymous person on the internet offering free money, which is typically a scam. Safer to pass, I think.
Parts of it do match (free money, to be repaid years from now), parts don’t (large liability years from now if the OP is correct, preference for crypto as irrevocable money transfer, desire for public agreement and public adjudication). The trust level implied by “accepting party has final say” and “hold all the money for years” is much higher than normal, which often indicates scam. The fact that I don’t see the scam (despite knowing a bit about common ones) is some evidence that it’s not a scam. The non-specificity of terms (which payment method(s) to use, what odds they’ll take, what min/max amount to consider) could go either way.
If OP were trolling for suckers or running an overpay/refund/revoke scam, they’d scale out rather than picking just one target—offer a bet to all takers, in hopes that multiple will be duped. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
Note that it can fail to be real without being a scam. An over-simple offer that is regretted before payment is irrevocable means no bet occurs, but that’s not scammy, it’s just over-aggressive signaling in wanting to make a bet and then avoiding the pain of actually making the payment. This is where I put most of my probability weight on failure (though some to scam, of course).
Doesn’t smell like it to me, and paying up front makes scamming harder. Are you thinking “he’s scouting for marks” or “the cost is mostly in dispute headaches” or “people who join schemes this weird end up in a ditch”?
There are free money scams where someone transfers money from stolen credit cards.
One way might be to agree to pay $1000 dollar and then “accidentally” transfer $2000 (from a stolen credit card) and then ask the person to transfer $1000 dollar back to another bank account.
I think RatsWrongAboutUAP did offer to pay in crypto which removes the option for these kinds of frauds. Otherwise, just avoiding transferring any money even if someone overpays you is also a good heuristic.
Scamming is adversarial, so it’s normal for a scam to appear like it’s safe. But I’m not claiming my pattern match is superior to yours.
A scam could include getting financial information to get money, or a voice print for impersonation. Maybe the scammer has insider information about UFOs. Maybe it’s entrapment for breaking gambling laws. Maybe a journalist is writing a story about how evil rationalists exploit innocent people with fringe beliefs for money.
The scam probability doesn’t have to be large for it to dwarf the apparent benefits.
Rare counterexample