(hit “see in context” to see the rest of my debate with lsusr)
Somehow it feels different at 0.5% though, as compared to the relatively even odds in the Yudkowsky-Caplan bet. (It’s not like I could earn, say, USD $200k in a few weeks before a deadline, like Eliezer could earn $100). 2% is getting closer to compensating for this issue for me though.
I made the same argument myself (lol) in response to lsusr regarding Eliezer’s bet with Bryan Caplan:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BknXGnQSfccoQTquR/the-caplan-yudkowsky-end-of-the-world-bet-scheme-doesn-t?commentId=44YGGYcx8wZZpgiof
(hit “see in context” to see the rest of my debate with lsusr)
Somehow it feels different at 0.5% though, as compared to the relatively even odds in the Yudkowsky-Caplan bet. (It’s not like I could earn, say, USD $200k in a few weeks before a deadline, like Eliezer could earn $100). 2% is getting closer to compensating for this issue for me though.