enough of it happens in months in software that at the end of this process humanity is helpless before the outcome
Well, yes, the end stages are fast. But I think it looks more like World War 2 than like FOOM in a basement.
The situation where some lone scientist develops this on his own without the world noticing is basically impossible now. So large nation states and empires will be at the cutting edge, putting the majority of their national resources into getting more compute, more developers and more electrical power for their national AGI efforts.
You don’t need more than it takes, striving at the level of capacity of nations is not assured. And AGI-developed optimizations might rapidly reduce what it takes.
Well, yes, the end stages are fast. But I think it looks more like World War 2 than like FOOM in a basement.
The situation where some lone scientist develops this on his own without the world noticing is basically impossible now. So large nation states and empires will be at the cutting edge, putting the majority of their national resources into getting more compute, more developers and more electrical power for their national AGI efforts.
You don’t need more than it takes, striving at the level of capacity of nations is not assured. And AGI-developed optimizations might rapidly reduce what it takes.