I’m a strong believer in modus ponens, in any domain of discourse where I know the meanings of all the words!
Scott Aaronson in reply to Max Tegmark replying to Scott’s review of Max’s book. He goes on:
In physics, however, I only believe in “approximate modus ponens,” in the following sense: if I accept “A” and “A⇒B,” then I’ll tentatively accept “B,” but I might decide on further reflection that I meant something different by a word appearing in “B” than by the same word in “A” or “A⇒B.” And in any case, I rarely would’ve considered “A” or “A⇒B” certain, just very well-established. For both of those reasons, I can start with physics statements that I consider to be well-established, apply enough steps of “modus ponens,” and end with a statement I consider to be speculation!
This sounds similar to the view that is sometimes called the fragility of deduction. It was why John Stuart Mill distrusted “long chains of logical reasoning” and according to Paul Samuelson it is why “Marshall treated such chains as if their truth content was subject to radioactive decay and leakage.”
And that is why the long chains of logical reasoning used in the UFAI argument should not be regarded as terminating in conclusions of near certainty or high probability.
Maybe, but it would not be very painful in many cases. In most cases, people who put forward highly conjunctive arguments don’t put out them forward as urgent, near certainties which require immediate and copious funding.Moreover, most audiences have enough common sense to implications as lossy.
MIRI/LW presen ts an unusual set of circa,stances which is worth pointing out.
Scott Aaronson in reply to Max Tegmark replying to Scott’s review of Max’s book. He goes on:
(Emphasis mine.)
This sounds similar to the view that is sometimes called the fragility of deduction. It was why John Stuart Mill distrusted “long chains of logical reasoning” and according to Paul Samuelson it is why “Marshall treated such chains as if their truth content was subject to radioactive decay and leakage.”
And that is why the long chains of logical reasoning used in the UFAI argument should not be regarded as terminating in conclusions of near certainty or high probability.
You could say that about anything.
Maybe, but it would not be very painful in many cases. In most cases, people who put forward highly conjunctive arguments don’t put out them forward as urgent, near certainties which require immediate and copious funding.Moreover, most audiences have enough common sense to implications as lossy.
MIRI/LW presen ts an unusual set of circa,stances which is worth pointing out.
That chain of reasoning isn’t very long.
It is when you supply the unstated assumptions.
Please elaborate.