It seems that arguments provide evidence, and Y is evidence for X if and only if P(X|Y)>P(X|¬Y). That is, when X and Y are positively probabilistically dependent. If I think that they are positively dependent, and you think that they are not, then this won’t convince you of course.
The point is, conditional probability doesn’t capture the effect of arguments.
It seems that arguments provide evidence, and Y is evidence for X if and only if P(X|Y)>P(X|¬Y). That is, when X and Y are positively probabilistically dependent. If I think that they are positively dependent, and you think that they are not, then this won’t convince you of course.