You have to assign probabilities anyway. See the amended article:
Considering some event a black swan doesn’t give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.
Okay, okay! How much our civilization is worth? Say, 10^20 dollars. If I had the money, I would be willing to part with 10^6 dollars to develop, manufacture, and distribute the book. Therefore, the probability of the book serving it’s primary purpose is 10^(-14).
How much our civilization is worth? Say, 10^20 dollars.
That’s meaningless. You can’t assign a value in dollars to the continued existence of our civilization. Dollars are only useful for pricing things inside that civilization. (Some people argue for using utilons to price the civilization’s existence.)
If I had the money, I would be willing to part with 10^6 dollars to develop, manufacture, and distribute the book. Therefore, the probability of the book serving it’s primary purpose is 10^(-14).
The amount you’re willing to pay is a fact about you, not about the book’s usefulness. You’re saying you estimate its probability of usefulness at 10^-14. But why?
You have to assign probabilities anyway. See the amended article:
Okay, okay! How much our civilization is worth? Say, 10^20 dollars. If I had the money, I would be willing to part with 10^6 dollars to develop, manufacture, and distribute the book. Therefore, the probability of the book serving it’s primary purpose is 10^(-14).
That’s meaningless. You can’t assign a value in dollars to the continued existence of our civilization. Dollars are only useful for pricing things inside that civilization. (Some people argue for using utilons to price the civilization’s existence.)
The amount you’re willing to pay is a fact about you, not about the book’s usefulness. You’re saying you estimate its probability of usefulness at 10^-14. But why?
Clearly the market for civilization creation books is efficient.
Nice point. Maybe we should instead talk about scenarios where humanity (including us) no longer suffers aging but a collapse still occurs.
Incidentally, I wonder what the market price for writing a civilization-destroying book might be?
I believe the going rate is 45 virgins in the afterlife.