I’m not sure if this is possible, but I think I’m looking for something like “I used this TAP and got this result where past me would not have used a TAP and gotten this other result which is demonstrably worse”.
This might be a good test of the calibration idea and making better predictions. Can we accurately predict what would happen without the extra thinking tools?
(Slight nitpick is that I meant ‘calibration’ in the Tetlock sense, like being able to make informed judgments about how global events will play out, but I agree there’s certainly an analogous component that maps onto ‘how well you can predict your own life’.)
I currently don’t think that I have good answers to them, so this is sort a placeholder reply until me (or someone else) puts in more thoughts into this line of inquiry.
I’m not sure if this is possible, but I think I’m looking for something like “I used this TAP and got this result where past me would not have used a TAP and gotten this other result which is demonstrably worse”.
This might be a good test of the calibration idea and making better predictions. Can we accurately predict what would happen without the extra thinking tools?
These are all very good questions.
(Slight nitpick is that I meant ‘calibration’ in the Tetlock sense, like being able to make informed judgments about how global events will play out, but I agree there’s certainly an analogous component that maps onto ‘how well you can predict your own life’.)
I currently don’t think that I have good answers to them, so this is sort a placeholder reply until me (or someone else) puts in more thoughts into this line of inquiry.