Having posted this and emailed Eliezer, I’m now considering his prediction as 16% flat. So that’s 1 bit of epistemic credit for him if it happens 1/8th of a bit for me if it doesn’t.
Having posted this and emailed Eliezer, I’m now considering his prediction as 16% flat. So that’s 1 bit of epistemic credit for him if it happens 1/8th of a bit for me if it doesn’t.